Martin Necas

Colorado Avalanche · C · #88

DET @ COL · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −2255 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 3, missed, 21 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 1, hit, 17.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 19.1 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 3, missed, 16.5 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 19.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 19.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 20 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 16.5 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 18.9 min
vs NSH, 2026-11-05: 1, hit, 23.6 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 1.5 without him: 7 of 10; with him: 60 of 98 (108 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 183 of 215 (.851) over his last 10 games · 5 of DET's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 6.41 points a game to forwards: 15th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 6.30, 15th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 19.7 min · 2026–27: 19.9 (17 games)
Power play: 4.1 min last 5 · 3.7 2026–27

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Cale MakarD
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Necas didn't play the Feb 2 meeting; points the last time Necas faced them: 2 (Mar 25, 2025)

Under 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −225
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −208

Research, not a pick. At −225 the price is worse than our fair −208, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2655 books	pick'em only	4/10
+1705 books	−2251 book	6/10
+5255 books	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings6 min ago	+165	−225Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	+170	—
betPARX4 min ago	+170	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+170	—
FanDuel2 min ago	+215Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

0.5 → 1.5 since first seen

Martin Necas's full game log and splits