Mark Stone

Vegas Golden Knights · RW · #61

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −2155 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at NSH, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 16.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 14 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 14.8 min
vs TB, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 18.5 min
at STL, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 16.8 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 20.4 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-27: 3, missed, 20.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 16.3 min
at BOS, 2026-11-02: 2, hit, 21.6 min
at PIT, 2026-11-03: 3, missed, 20.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Parker Wotherspoon: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 7 of 11; with him: 3 of 6 (17 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 183 of 215 (.851) over his last 10 games · 5 of DET's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 17.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 26th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 16.4, 29th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 19.8 min · 2026–27: 18.6 (17 games)
Power play: 2.2 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 3 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Mitch MarnerRW
Victor OlofssonLW
Jack EichelC
Parker WotherspoonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Golden Knights count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Stone didn't play the Mar 4 meeting; shots on goal the last time Stone faced them: 3 (Mar 22, 2025)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −215
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −168

Research, not a pick. At −215 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −168, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9502 books	—	1/10
−1842 books	—	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1485 books	−2152 books	6/10
+4602 books	—	10/10
+11001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet12 min ago	+148	−215Best
betPARX3 min ago	+148	−215Best
BetRivers4 min ago	+148	—
DraftKings12 min ago	+195Best	—
FanDuel2 min ago	+178	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:25 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Mark Stone's full game log and splits