Mark Scheifele

Winnipeg Jets · C · #55

VAN @ WPG · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1625 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%6 of 12L20 · Without Morrissey

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of 12 games without Josh Morrissey (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-11: 3, missed, 20.4 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-04-13: 2, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-04-14: 2, hit, 21.2 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-04-16: 0, hit, 18.6 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 21.4 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-04: 2, hit, 18.1 min (not counted)
at PIT, 2026-10-05: 3, missed, 21.3 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-10-07: 1, hit, 22.5 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-10-09: 1, hit, 22.3 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-13: 3, missed, 16.3 min
at CHI, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 21.5 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-17: 3, missed, 19.3 min
at STL, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 20.9 min
at DAL, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 23.7 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-25: 7, missed, 25.1 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-27: 3, missed, 20.2 min
at TB, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 20.5 min
at FLA, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 22.3 min
at CAR, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 20.1 min
at MTL, 2026-11-03: 3, missed, 28.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Josh Morrissey: Injured Reserve (wrist)
Under 2.5 without him: 8 of 17; with him: 58 of 86 (103 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 24.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: the most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 24.4, the most
Teammate out
Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 2.5 without him: 19 of 32; with him: 47 of 72 (104 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Leevi Merilainen (Confirmed)
Saves: 271 of 302 (.897) over his last 10 games · 7 of VAN's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against VAN in his last 20; Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 6 against VAN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Kyle ConnorLW
Josh MorrisseyDInjured Reserve
Neal PionkD
Vladislav NamestnikovCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Shots on Goal: 6 in 25.1 min, Mar 7 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against VAN on record

L20 · Without Morrissey · Under 2.5

Average: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 6 of 12
Price implies: 62%; at −162
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −160 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Morrissey

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−14502 books	—	1/12
−2452 books	—	4/12
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/12
+1155 books	−1624 books	6/12
+2902 books	—	10/12
+6802 books	—	11/12
+16001 book	—	11/12

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings7 min ago	+120	−160Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	+115	−162
betPARX6 min ago	+115	−162
FanDuel5 min ago	+125Best	−164
BetRivers5 min ago	+115	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Mark Scheifele's full game log and splits