Mackie Samoskevich

Seattle Kraken · RW · #11

NYR @ SEA · Today 5:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1957 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at WSH, 2026-10-11: 1, hit, 14.4 min
at PHI, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 17.6 min
at TB, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 13.8 min
at FLA, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 16.7 min
vs DET, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 15.8 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 12.7 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 16.4 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 14.4 min
at CGY, 2026-10-30: 4, missed, 18.9 min
vs CGY, 2026-11-04: 4, missed, 14.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jared McCann: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 4; with him: 7 of 10 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Lindgren: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 8 of 11; with him: 1 of 3 (14 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Dylan Garand (Expected)
Saves: 229 of 255 (.898) over his last 10 games · 9 of NYR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NYR allow 18.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 25th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 19.7, 17th most

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYR in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 against NYR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Chandler StephensonC
Berkly CattonC
Kaapo KakkoRW
Jared McCannLWInjured Reserve
Ryan LindgrenDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Kraken count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYR

Shots on Goal: 0 in 13.8 min, Jan 12 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against NYR on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −195
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −185 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −163, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9503 books	—	2/10
−1863 books	+1361 book	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1357 books	−1954 books	7/10
+4503 books	—	8/10
+8001 book	—	10/10
+19001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+135	−185Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	+135	−185Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	+135	−195
betPARX2 min ago	+135	−195
BetRivers3 min ago	+135	—
Bovada9 min ago	+175Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+175Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Mackie Samoskevich's full game log and splits