Luke Evangelista

New Jersey Devils · RW · #77

STL @ NJ · Live

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −2103 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-10-06: 2, hit, 18.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-10: 3, missed, 19 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-12: 0, hit, 11.7 min
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 16.9 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 17.3 min
vs LA, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 16.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 18.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 17.5 min
at VGK, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 18.7 min
vs EDM, 2026-11-03: 2, hit, 17.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different yesterday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayOpposing goalie
Jordan Binnington (Confirmed)
Saves: 199 of 230 (.865) over his last 10 games · 2 of STL's last 10 starts · Joel Hofer started 8
Defense vs forwards
STL allow 19.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 19th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 20.3, 15th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.8 min · 2026–27: 17.5 (12 games)
Power play: 3.3 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27
Rest
1 day off since Nov 3 vs EDM

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against STL in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 10 against STL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Jack HughesC
Jesper BrattLW
Arseny GritsyukRW

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Devils count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs STL

Evangelista didn't play the Feb 28 meeting; shots on goal the last time Evangelista faced them: 3 (Feb 2)

Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 10 games against STL on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −210
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −197 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −144, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7501 book	—	2/10
−1701 book	+1251 book	3/10
+1463 books	−2102 books	6/10
+4251 book	—	8/10
+10001 book	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle21 hr ago	+146	−197Best
Bally Bet21 hr ago	+145	−210
DraftKings21 hr ago	+170Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Luke Evangelista's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:10 PM ET.