Luke Evangelista

New Jersey Devils · RW · #77

EDM @ NJ · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2315 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Opposing goalie
Tristan Jarry (Expected)
Saves: 218 of 245 (.890) over his last 10 games · 5 of EDM's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
EDM allow 3.40 assists a game to forwards: 21st most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 3.10, 23rd most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.7 min · 2026–27: 17.4 (11 games)
Power play: 3.1 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27
Rest
3 days off since Oct 30 at VGK

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

at NYI, 2026-10-03: 0, hit, 18.9 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 18.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-12: 0, hit, 11.7 min
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 16.9 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 17.3 min
vs LA, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 16.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 18.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 17.5 min
at VGK, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 18.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Count only

Under 0.5 · L10

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Jack HughesC
Jesper BrattLW
Arseny GritsyukRW

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Devils count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs EDM

Evangelista didn't play the Jan 20 meeting; assists the last time Evangelista faced them: 0 (Mar 15)

Under 0.5 hit in 5 of 7 games against EDM on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −231
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −168

Research, not a pick. At −231 the price is worse than our fair −168, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1435 books	−2311 book	6/10
	+9001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle2 min ago	+169Best	−231Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	+143	—
betPARX3 min ago	+143	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+143	—
FanDuel2 min ago	+168	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under −225 → −231 since first seen

Luke Evangelista's full game log and splits