Leo Carlsson

Anaheim Ducks · C · #91

ANA @ VAN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Assists, typical price −1226 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 4.94 assists a game to forwards: the most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 4.80, 2nd most
Teammate out
Troy Terry: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 14 of 26; with him: 30 of 70 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Poehling: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 17; with him: 35 of 79 (96 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Leevi Merilainen (Expected)
Saves: 271 of 302 (.897) over his last 10 games · 7 of VAN's last 10 starts

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Assists cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at CGY, 2026-10-10: 1, cleared, 20.3 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 22.3 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-16: 0, missed, 20.4 min
at NYR, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 15.2 min
at NYI, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 20.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 19.2 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 20.4 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 16.2 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 22.2 min
vs OTT, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 20.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 assists.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L10

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Cutter GauthierLW
Beckett SenneckeRW
Jackson LaCombeD
Troy TerryRWInjured Reserve
Ryan PoehlingCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Ducks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Assists: 1 in 16.2 min, Oct 27 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 9 games against VAN on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −139, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1226 books	−1101 book	6/10
+3603 books	—	3/10
+12482 books	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet9 min ago	−120Best	—
betPARX8 min ago	−120Best	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−120Best	—
DraftKings10 min ago	−125	−110Best
Bovada9 min ago	−143	—
FanDuel6 min ago	−154	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −148 → −122 since first seen

Leo Carlsson's full game log and splits