Lawson Crouse

Utah Mammoth · LW · #67

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −2305 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 54 of 94 (102 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Maveric Lamoureux: Injured Reserve (shoulder)
Under 0.5 without him: 39 of 70; with him: 3 of 5 (75 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)
Saves: 255 of 288 (.885) over his last 10 games · 6 of TOR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 6.31 points a game to forwards: 18th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 6.80, 9th most

70%7 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 15 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 14.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 16.7 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 12.9 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 15.9 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 12.9 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 12.5 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 12.8 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 17.5 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 12.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 points.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
John MarinoDInjured Reserve
Maveric LamoureuxDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Points: 0 in 14.9 min, Oct 13 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −230
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 66%; estimate · fair −195

Research, not a pick. At −230 the price is worse than our fair −195, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1555 books	−2301 book	7/10
	+7505 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings14 min ago	+170Best	−230Best
Bally Bet4 min ago	+155	—
betPARX4 min ago	+155	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+155	—
Bovada4 min ago	+155	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:48 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Lawson Crouse's full game log and splits