Kyle Palmieri

New York Islanders · C · #21

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1595 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

71%10 of 14L20 · Without Barzal

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 10 of 14 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2025-11-18: 3, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
at DET, 2025-11-20: 3, cleared, 15.7 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2025-11-22: 3, cleared, 18.6 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2025-11-23: 1, missed, 19.2 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2025-11-26: 6, cleared, 22.5 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2025-11-28: 0, missed, 9.4 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 4, cleared, 18.6 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 2, cleared, 14.6 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 2, cleared, 16.6 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 1, missed, 13.5 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 15.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 16.7 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 17.2 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 3, cleared, 14.6 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 19.2 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 16.8 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 17 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 20.6 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 2, cleared, 17.1 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 17.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 11 of 15; with him: 21 of 24 (39 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 5 of 8 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 17 of 23 (29 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Pyotr Kochetkov (Expected)
Saves: 196 of 212 (.925) over his last 10 games · 8 of CAR's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 11 of 13 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Matthew SchaeferD
Bo HorvatC
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Palmieri didn't play the Apr 14 meeting; shots on goal the last time Palmieri faced them: 2 (Oct 30, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 11 of 13 games against CAR on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Over 1.5

Average: 2.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 71%; 10 of 14
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −171

Research, not a pick. At −159 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −171, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−8702 books	—	12/14
−1595 books	+1124 books	10/14
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/14
+1553 books	−1951 book	6/14
+3902 books	—	2/14
+9001 book	—	0/14
+20001 book	—	0/14

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−159Best	+112
betPARX4 min ago	−159Best	+112
BetRivers5 min ago	−159Best	—
FanDuel5 min ago	−170	+130
DraftKings6 min ago	−180	+135Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:08 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −164 → −159 since first seen

Kyle Palmieri's full game log and splits