Kyle Connor

Winnipeg Jets · LW · #81

WPG @ MTL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1596 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Josh Morrissey: Injured Reserve (wrist)
Under 3.5 without him: 11 of 17; with him: 48 of 87 (104 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 3.5 without him: 18 of 31; with him: 41 of 73 (104 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jacob Fowler (Confirmed)
Saves: 239 of 256 (.934) over his last 10 games · 7 of MTL's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
MTL allow 19.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 18th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 19.8, 16th most

73%8 of 11L20 · Without Morrissey

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of 11 games without Josh Morrissey (his last 20 games).

at STL, 2026-04-09: 6, missed, 20.9 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-11: 2, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-04-13: 3, hit, 21.4 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-04-14: 6, missed, 20.9 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-04-16: 7, missed, 18.3 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-02: 9, missed, 20.9 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-04: 5, missed, 20.1 min (not counted)
at PIT, 2026-10-05: 6, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-10-07: 4, missed, 20.1 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-10-09: 3, hit, 23.9 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-13: 3, hit, 17.4 min
at CHI, 2026-10-15: 5, missed, 21.1 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-17: 2, hit, 20.2 min
at STL, 2026-10-20: 4, missed, 21.7 min
at DAL, 2026-10-22: 3, hit, 23 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 24.4 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-27: 3, hit, 21.6 min
at TB, 2026-10-29: 3, hit, 19.2 min
at FLA, 2026-10-30: 2, hit, 20.7 min
at CAR, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 19.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 shots on goal.

Count only

Under 3.5 · L20

With or without

Under 3.5 · L20

Mark ScheifeleC
Josh MorrisseyDInjured Reserve
Neal PionkD
Vladislav NamestnikovCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Jets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Shots on Goal: 5 in 24.4 min, Oct 25 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against MTL on record

L20 · Without Morrissey · Under 3.5

Average: 3.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 73%; 8 of 11
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Morrissey

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−35001 book	—	0/11
−6522 books	—	0/11
−2072 books	—	3/11
+1176 books	−1595 books	8/11
+2472 books	—	9/11
+5002 books	—	11/11
+11001 book	—	11/11

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel4 min ago	+114	−148Best
DraftKings3 min ago	+115	−155
Pinnacle3 min ago	+119Best	−159
Bally Bet3 min ago	+117	−165
betPARX2 min ago	+117	−165
BetRivers2 min ago	+117	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:03 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under −144 → −159 since first seen

Kyle Connor's full game log and splits