Kasperi Kapanen

Edmonton Oilers · RW · #42

EDM @ NJ · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −2305 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (Confirmed)
Saves: 197 of 224 (.879) over his last 10 games · 2 of NJ's last 10 starts · Jake Allen started 5
Teammate out
Matt Savoie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 27 of 47 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zach Hyman: Injured Reserve (neck)
Under 0.5 without him: 16 of 26; with him: 27 of 48 (74 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NJ allow 5.64 points a game to forwards: 25th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 5.10, 28th most

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

at LA, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 17.8 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 16.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 18 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 19.3 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 20.1 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 15.4 min
vs DET, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 19 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 18.4 min
at NYI, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 19.5 min
at NYR, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 21.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 points.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NJ in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 3 against NJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Connor McDavidC
Leon DraisaitlC
Evan BouchardD
Matt SavoieCInjured Reserve
Zach HymanLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Oilers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

Kapanen didn't play the Jan 20 meeting; points the last time Kapanen faced them: 0 (Oct 18, 2025)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 3 games against NJ on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −230
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −230 the price is worse than our fair −163, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1485 books	−2301 book	6/10
	+7005 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings14 min ago	+165Best	−230Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+148	—
betPARX4 min ago	+148	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+148	—
Bovada5 min ago	+148	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Kasperi Kapanen's full game log and splits