Judd Caulfield

Anaheim Ducks · RW · #28

ANA @ VAN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1835 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Kevin Lankinen (Confirmed)
Saves: 220 of 266 (.827) over his last 10 games · 3 of VAN's last 10 starts · Leevi Merilainen started 7
TonightDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 24.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: the most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 24.7, the most
Teammate out
Troy Terry: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 1.5 without him: 8 of 12; with him: no games (12 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Poehling: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: 4 of 5 (12 games as teammates)

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs EDM, 2026-10-07: 1, hit, 10.1 min
at WPG, 2026-10-09: 3, missed, 9.6 min
at CGY, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 13.9 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 17 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-16: 0, hit, 13 min
at NYR, 2026-10-19: 1, hit, 13.4 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 12.5 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 15 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 13.6 min
vs OTT, 2026-11-01: 3, missed, 13.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Leo CarlssonC
Cutter GauthierLW
Beckett SenneckeRW
Troy TerryRWInjured Reserve
Ryan PoehlingCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Ducks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Shots on Goal: 1 in 15 min, Oct 27 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against VAN on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −183
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −177 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −149, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2651 book	—	3/10
+1255 books	−1834 books	6/10
+5001 book	—	7/10
+15001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	+125	−177Best
betPARX3 min ago	+125	−177Best
Pinnacle4 min ago	+141	−190
DraftKings4 min ago	+160Best	−220
BetRivers3 min ago	+125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −140 → −183 since first seen

Judd Caulfield's full game log and splits