Jonas Brodin

Minnesota Wild · D · #25

MIN @ PHI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −3704 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Under 0.5 without him: 12 of 17; with him: 53 of 66 (83 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: 21 of 24 (39 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Dan Vladar (Confirmed)
Saves: 265 of 298 (.889) over his last 10 games · 5 of PHI's last 10 starts
Defense vs defensemen
PHI allow 1.75 assists a game to defensemen: 11th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 1.70, 15th most

50%5 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 7 on the road).

at WPG, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 21.7 min
vs STL, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 22.9 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 0, hit, 22.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 28.2 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 19.1 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 17.7 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 19.1 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 23.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 23.6 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 23.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against PHI in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 against PHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHI

Assists: 0 in 20 min, Mar 12 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against PHI on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 79%; at −370
Books’ fair: 74%; margin removed
Our chance: 70%; estimate · fair −233

Research, not a pick. At −370 the price is worse than our fair −233, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+2754 books	−3701 book	5/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+260	−370Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	+275Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	+275Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+275Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:19 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Jonas Brodin's full game log and splits