John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #74

CHI @ TB · Live

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1853 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NYI, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 20.7 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 19.9 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 21.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 4, cleared, 18.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 4, cleared, 17.8 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 18.3 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 21.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 13.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 19.2 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 1, missed, 16.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Arvid Soderblom (Confirmed)
Saves: 268 of 307 (.873) over his last 10 games · 1 of CHI's last 10 starts · Spencer Knight started 9
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 14; with him: no games (14 games as teammates)
Defense vs defensemen
CHI allow 7.6 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 15th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 6.7, 26th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.8 min · 2026–27: 19 (14 games)
Power play: 2.2 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Brandon HagelLW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CHI

Carlson didn't play the Jan 23 meeting; shots on goal the last time Carlson faced them: 0 (Jan 9)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against CHI on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8001 book	—	9/10
−1853 books	+1353 books	5/10
+1551 book	—	5/10
+3801 book	—	3/10
+9001 book	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet2 hr ago	−155Best	+110
DraftKings2 hr ago	−185	+135
Pinnacle2 hr ago	−197	+146Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

2.5 → 1.5 since first seen

John Carlson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:09 PM ET.