Joel Eriksson Ek

Minnesota Wild · C · #14

SJ @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1856 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

vs STL, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 23.2 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 21.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 8, cleared, 22.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 23.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 15.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 20.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 4, cleared, 21.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 17.2 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 19.6 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 4, cleared, 19.3 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
SJ allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 23.5, 2nd most
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Over 2.5 without him: 12 of 17; with him: 44 of 76 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 12 of 16; with him: 14 of 20 (36 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Yaroslav Askarov (Expected)
Saves: 259 of 292 (.887) over his last 10 games · 6 of SJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SJ in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 4 of 9 against SJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.3 min, Dec 31, 2025 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against SJ on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −174

Research, not a pick. At −162 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −174, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−30001 book	—	10/10
−5803 books	—	10/10
−1856 books	+1142 books	7/10
+1343 books	−1701 book	4/10
+2853 books	—	2/10
+6003 books	—	1/10
+11001 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−162Best	+114Best
betPARX5 min ago	−162Best	+114Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−162Best	—
DraftKings4 min ago	−185	—
FanDuel3 min ago	−188	—
Bovada4 min ago	−190	—

Prices as of 9:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Joel Eriksson Ek's full game log and splits