Joel Eriksson Ek

Minnesota Wild · C · #14

SJ @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1703 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs STL, 2026-10-15: 3, hit, 23.2 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 21.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 8, missed, 22.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 3, hit, 23.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 15.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 20.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 21.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 2, hit, 17.2 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 19.6 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 4, missed, 19.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
SJ allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 23.5, 2nd most
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Under 3.5 without him: 12 of 17; with him: 52 of 76 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 3.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: 10 of 20 (36 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Yaroslav Askarov (Expected)
Saves: 259 of 292 (.887) over his last 10 games · 6 of SJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SJ in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 6 of 9 against SJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.3 min, Dec 31, 2025 (away)

Under 3.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against SJ on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −170
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −170 the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−30001 book	—	0/10
−5603 books	—	0/10
−1853 books	—	3/10
+1343 books	−1701 book	6/10
+2853 books	—	8/10
+6003 books	—	9/10
+11001 book	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+125	−170Best
Bovada5 min ago	+134	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+146Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−176 → −170 since first seen

Joel Eriksson Ek's full game log and splits