Jean-Gabriel Pageau

New York Islanders · C · #44

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −2505 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%8 of 14L20 · Without Barzal

Under 0.5 Points hit in 8 of 14 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-03: 1, missed, 20 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-04-04: 1, missed, 15.8 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 1, missed, 14.5 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 19 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 16.5 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 0, hit, 14.9 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 0, hit, 13.8 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 14.8 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 14.8 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 1, missed, 15.3 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 14.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 14.7 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 15.6 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 19.5 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.3 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 16.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 13.4 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 16.9 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 15.9 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 17.6 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 44 of 73 (88 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Brandon Bussi (Confirmed)
Saves: 209 of 235 (.889) over his last 10 games · 2 of CAR's last 10 starts · Pyotr Kochetkov started 8
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 5 of 8 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 13; with him: 42 of 65 (78 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Matthew SchaeferD
Bo HorvatC
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Points: 0 in 14.9 min, Apr 14 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 8 of 12 games against CAR on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 8 of 14
Price implies: 71%; at −250
Books’ fair: 66%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Research, not a pick. At −221 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −150, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1705 books	−2502 books	8/14
	+8004 books	—	14/14

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle10 min ago	+162	−221Best
DraftKings10 min ago	+185Best	−250
Bally Bet10 min ago	+170	—
betPARX4 min ago	+170	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+170	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau's full game log and splits