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Jean-Gabriel Pageau

New York Islanders · C · #44

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM
OverUnder0.5
Under 0.5 Points, typical price −2454 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 0.5

57%8 of 14L20 · Without Barzal

Under 0.5 Points hit in 8 of 14 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

  1. vs PHI, 2026-04-03: 1, missed, 20 min (not counted)
  2. at CAR, 2026-04-04: 1, missed, 15.8 min (not counted)
  3. vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 1, missed, 14.5 min (not counted)
  4. vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 19 min (not counted)
  5. vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 16.5 min (not counted)
  6. vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 0, hit, 14.9 min (not counted)
  7. at TOR, 2026-09-30: 0, hit, 13.8 min
  8. vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 14.8 min
  9. at NYR, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 14.8 min
  10. vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 1, missed, 15.3 min
  11. vs TB, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 14.6 min
  12. vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 14.7 min
  13. at OTT, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 15.6 min
  14. at TOR, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 19.5 min
  15. vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.3 min
  16. vs LA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 16.4 min
  17. at DAL, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 13.4 min
  18. at NSH, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 16.9 min
  19. at MIN, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 15.9 min
  20. vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 17.6 min
Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayTeammate out

    Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)

    Under 0.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 44 of 73 (88 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)

    Under 0.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 5 of 8 (14 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)

    Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 13; with him: 42 of 65 (78 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    Pyotr Kochetkov (Expected)

    Saves: 196 of 212 (.925) over his last 10 games · 8 of CAR's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

  • Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve

  • Matthew SchaeferD

  • Bo HorvatC

  • Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve

  • Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Points: 0 in 14.9 min, Apr 14 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 8 of 12 games against CAR on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Under 0.5

Average
0.4
−0.1 vs line
Median
0
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
57%
8 of 14
Price implies
71%
at −245
Books’ fair
66%
margin removed
Our chance
60%
estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −245 the price is worse than our fair −152, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Barzal
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
+1754 books−2451 book8/14
+8504 books—14/14
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 0.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 0.5Under 0.5
DraftKings3 min ago+175Best−245Best
Bally Bet3 min ago+175Best—
betPARX3 min ago+175Best—
BetRivers4 min ago+175Best—

Prices as of 9:30 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau's full game log and splits