Jason Robertson

Dallas Stars · LW · #21

DAL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1596 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

73%11 of 15L20 · Without Duchene

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 11 of 15 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 5, cleared, 16.6 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-22: 5, cleared, 29.1 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 7, cleared, 25.2 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 5, cleared, 24.1 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 2, missed, 24.8 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 2, missed, 19.7 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 18.8 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 4, cleared, 17.8 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 4, cleared, 15.2 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 3, cleared, 21.6 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 22.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 3, cleared, 22.4 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 7, cleared, 19.6 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 23.6 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 4, cleared, 21.7 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 19 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 18.9 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 21.5 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 16.6 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 5, cleared, 17.1 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Over 2.5 without him: 30 of 40; with him: 42 of 74 (114 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Miro Heiskanen: Out (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 70 of 106 (111 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Sam Steel: Out (personal)
Over 2.5 without him: 8 of 11; with him: 64 of 103 (114 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Confirmed)
Saves: 190 of 216 (.880) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Wyatt JohnstonC
Miro HeiskanenDOut
Sam SteelCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Shots on Goal: 1 in 16.6 min, Oct 31 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against CBJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Over 2.5

Average: 3.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 73%; 11 of 15
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −158

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −158, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−25001 book	—	15/15
−5202 books	—	13/15
−1596 books	+1125 books	11/15
+1552 books	—	6/15
+3402 books	—	2/15
+7501 book	—	1/15
+16001 book	—	1/15

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings9 min ago	−150Best	+110
FanDuel4 min ago	−156	+120
Bally Bet8 min ago	−159	+112
betPARX4 min ago	−159	+112
BetRivers4 min ago	−159	—
Pinnacle9 min ago	−168	+126Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −156 → −159 since first seen

Jason Robertson's full game log and splits