Jamie Benn

Dallas Stars · LW · #14

SJ @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1186 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

69%11 of 16L20 · Without Duchene

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 11 of 16 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-04-22: 1, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 13.4 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 4, missed, 14.1 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 0, hit, 11.8 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 10.1 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 13.2 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 4, missed, 14.3 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 0, hit, 12.4 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 10.9 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 13.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 2, missed, 13 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 12.1 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 13.4 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 13.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 12.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 9.8 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 12 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 15.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 12.1 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-05: 0, hit, 15.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Under 1.5 without him: 18 of 26; with him: 46 of 67 (93 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic (Expected)
Saves: 270 of 299 (.903) over his last 10 games · 3 of SJ's last 10 starts · Yaroslav Askarov started 7
TodayDefense vs forwards
SJ allow 22.1 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
18 games · last 10 games: 23.8, the most
Teammate out
Miro Heiskanen: Out (upper body)
Under 1.5 without him: 6 of 6; with him: 57 of 84 (90 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Miro HeiskanenDOut
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Shots on Goal: 4 in 14.3 min, Oct 5 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against SJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 69%; 11 of 16
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5202 books	—	7/16
−1186 books	−1184 books	11/16
+2502 books	—	14/16
+6501 book	—	15/16
+16001 book	—	16/16

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings7 min ago	−115	−115Best
Bally Bet7 min ago	−118	−118
betPARX7 min ago	−118	−118
Pinnacle7 min ago	−102Best	−130
BetRivers7 min ago	−118	—
FanDuel6 min ago	−106	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: +105 → −118 since first seen

Jamie Benn's full game log and splits