Jamie Benn

Dallas Stars · LW · #14

DAL @ WSH · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1593 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Under 1.5 without him: 16 of 24; with him: 47 of 68 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Oskar Back: Injured Reserve (finger)
Under 1.5 without him: 10 of 13; with him: 53 of 79 (92 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Logan Thompson (Confirmed)
Saves: 253 of 279 (.907) over his last 10 games · 7 of WSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 20.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: 9th most of 32
13 games · last 10 games: 20.3, 14th most

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Duchene

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 9 of 14 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 1, hit, 11.9 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 2, missed, 12.8 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-22: 1, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 13.4 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 4, missed, 14.1 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 0, hit, 11.8 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 10.1 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 13.2 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 4, missed, 14.3 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 0, hit, 12.4 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 10.9 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 13.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 2, missed, 13 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 12.1 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 13.4 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 13.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 12.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 9.8 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 12 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 15.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 20; Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 2 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Benn didn't play the Jan 7 meeting; shots on goal the last time Benn faced them: 2 (Dec 16, 2024)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against WSH on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Under 1.5

Average: 1.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −159 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −144, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1153 books	−1592 books	9/14

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	+115Best	−159Best
betPARX3 min ago	+115Best	−159Best
BetRivers3 min ago	+115Best	—

Prices as of 4:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Jamie Benn's full game log and splits