Jamie Benn

Dallas Stars · LW · #14

SJ @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1466 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

69%11 of 16L20 · Without Duchene

Under 0.5 Points hit in 11 of 16 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-04-22: 0, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 13.4 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 0, hit, 14.1 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 0, hit, 11.8 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 10.1 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 0, hit, 13.2 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 2, missed, 14.3 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 0, hit, 12.4 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 10.9 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 13.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 0, hit, 13 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 12.1 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 13.4 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 13.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 12.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 9.8 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 12 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 15.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 1, missed, 12.1 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-05: 0, hit, 15.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Under 0.5 without him: 15 of 26; with him: 46 of 67 (93 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic (Expected)
Saves: 270 of 299 (.903) over his last 10 games · 3 of SJ's last 10 starts · Yaroslav Askarov started 7
Teammate out
Miro Heiskanen: Out (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 54 of 84 (90 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Oskar Back: Injured Reserve (finger)
Under 0.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: 51 of 78 (93 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Miro HeiskanenDOut
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Points: 2 in 14.3 min, Oct 5 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against SJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 69%; 11 of 16
Price implies: 59%; at −146
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −143, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1086 books	−1462 books	11/16
	+5105 books	—	15/16

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings2 min ago	+110Best	−145Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	+110Best	−146
Bally Bet2 min ago	+108	—
betPARX2 min ago	+108	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+108	—
Bovada2 min ago	+108	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: −145 → −146 since first seen

Jamie Benn's full game log and splits