Jackson Blake

Carolina Hurricanes · RW · #53

CAR @ NSH · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1727 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Staal: Injured Reserve (calf)
Under 2.5 without him: 8 of 17; with him: 67 of 109 (126 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Juuse Saros (Confirmed)
Saves: 278 of 308 (.903) over his last 10 games · 7 of NSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NSH allow 20.7 shots on goal a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 19.2, 21st most
Time on ice
Last 5: 16.7 min · 2026–27: 17.9 (16 games)
Power play: 2.6 min last 5 · 4.4 2026–27

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 on the road).

at PHI, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 20.4 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 18.3 min
at WPG, 2026-10-17: 4, missed, 20.2 min
at CGY, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 16.9 min
at VAN, 2026-10-20: 5, missed, 20.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-22: 4, missed, 17.6 min
at STL, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 17.2 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 16.8 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 16.8 min
vs WPG, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 15 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Count only

Under 2.5 · L10

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Sebastian AhoC
Nikolaj EhlersLW
Andrei SvechnikovLW
Jordan StaalCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hurricanes count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NSH

Shots on Goal: 4 in 16.5 min, Dec 17, 2025 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against NSH on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −172
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −164 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−15003 books	—	0/10
−2603 books	—	4/10
+1237 books	−1726 books	5/10
+3203 books	—	5/10
+6742 books	—	9/10
+10552 books	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel2 min ago	+125	−164Best
DraftKings3 min ago	+120	−165
Bovada3 min ago	+130Best	−170
Bally Bet3 min ago	+123	−175
betPARX5 min ago	+123	−175
Pinnacle3 min ago	+125	−175
BetRivers3 min ago	+123	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:17 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under −188 → −172 since first seen

Jackson Blake's full game log and splits