Gavin McKenna

Toronto Maple Leafs · LW · #92

MTL @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −3207 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 6.6 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 17.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 11.5 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 13 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 10.7 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 11.5 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 14.8 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 15.6 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 13 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 15.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 9 of 14 (17 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Under 0.5 without him: 11 of 17; with him: no games (17 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jacob Fowler (Confirmed)
Saves: 249 of 270 (.922) over his last 10 games · 6 of MTL's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
MTL allow 3.69 assists a game to forwards: 17th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 3.40, 18th most

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MTL in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 1 against MTL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresC
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Assists: 0 in 15.3 min, Sep 29 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against MTL on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 76%; at −320
Books’ fair: 71%; margin removed
Our chance: 69%; estimate · fair −226

Research, not a pick. At −319 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −226, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+2307 books	−3202 books	7/10
	+12003 books	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle4 min ago	+224	−319Best
DraftKings4 min ago	+230Best	−320
Bally Bet4 min ago	+230Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	+230Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+230Best	—
Bovada4 min ago	+220	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+210	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Gavin McKenna's full game log and splits