Gabriel Vilardi

Winnipeg Jets · C · #13

WPG @ MTL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2196 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Josh Morrissey: Injured Reserve (wrist)
Under 0.5 without him: 13 of 17; with him: 49 of 87 (104 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 22 of 31; with him: 40 of 73 (104 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jacob Fowler (Expected)
Saves: 239 of 256 (.934) over his last 10 games · 7 of MTL's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
MTL allow 3.36 assists a game to forwards: 23rd most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 2.50, 31st most

73%8 of 11L20 · Without Morrissey

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 8 of 11 games without Josh Morrissey (his last 20 games).

at STL, 2026-04-09: 1, missed, 16.5 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 17.5 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-04-13: 1, missed, 17.9 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-04-14: 2, missed, 17.7 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-04-16: 0, hit, 17.4 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-02: 1, missed, 18.1 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 14.7 min (not counted)
at PIT, 2026-10-05: 0, hit, 14.4 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-10-07: 0, hit, 14.4 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 18.6 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 18.9 min
at CHI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 16.5 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 18.8 min
at STL, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.8 min
at DAL, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 19.7 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 18.5 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 14.2 min
at TB, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 19.1 min
at FLA, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 20.1 min
at CAR, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Count only

Under 0.5 · L20

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Kyle ConnorLW
Mark ScheifeleC
Josh MorrisseyDInjured Reserve
Vladislav NamestnikovCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Jets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Assists: 1 in 18.5 min, Oct 25 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 0 of 5 games against MTL on record

L20 · Without Morrissey · Under 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 73%; 8 of 11
Price implies: 69%; at −219
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −209

Research, not a pick. At −214 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −209, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Morrissey

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1636 books	−2192 books	8/11
	+8902 books	—	11/11

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle14 min ago	+157	−214Best
DraftKings14 min ago	+165Best	−225
Bally Bet14 min ago	+163	—
betPARX6 min ago	+163	—
BetRivers6 min ago	+163	—
FanDuel4 min ago	+140	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Gabriel Vilardi's full game log and splits