Frank Vatrano

Anaheim Ducks · RW · #77

ANA @ VAN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1751 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Kevin Lankinen (Confirmed)
Saves: 220 of 266 (.827) over his last 10 games · 3 of VAN's last 10 starts · Leevi Merilainen started 7
TonightDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 24.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: the most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 24.7, the most
Teammate out
Troy Terry: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 1.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 23 of 45 (58 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Poehling: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 1.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: 25 of 45 (58 games as teammates)

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

vs SJ, 2026-04-09: 1, hit, 12.3 min
at MIN, 2026-04-14: 1, hit, 8.5 min
at VGK, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 10.6 min
at CGY, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 11.8 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 10.8 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-16: 1, hit, 13 min
at NYR, 2026-10-19: 2, missed, 14.6 min
at NYI, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 10.2 min
at NJ, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 11.9 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 11.6 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against VAN in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 8 against VAN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Leo CarlssonC
Cutter GauthierLW
Beckett SenneckeRW
Troy TerryRWInjured Reserve
Ryan PoehlingCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Ducks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Vatrano didn't play the Oct 27 meeting; shots on goal the last time Vatrano faced them: 2 (Nov 26, 2025)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 8 games against VAN on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −179

Research, not a pick. At −175 the price beats our fair −179, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3301 book	—	1/10
+1301 book	−1751 book	8/10
+3901 book	—	10/10
+10001 book	—	10/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+130Best	−175Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −160 → −175 since first seen

Frank Vatrano's full game log and splits