Erik Karlsson

Pittsburgh Penguins · D · #65

BOS @ PIT · Live

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1202 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

38%3 of 8L20 · Without Rust

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 3 of 8 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 1, missed, 27.5 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 2, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 1, missed, 26.8 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 2, missed, 26.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 4, cleared, 36.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-09-30: 3, cleared, 20 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 0, missed, 19.6 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 1, missed, 24 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 4, cleared, 24.7 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 0, missed, 24.8 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 2, missed, 27.2 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 20.4 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 2, missed, 21 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 21.9 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 27.7 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 24.2 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 26.2 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 21.5 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 23.6 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-03: 2, missed, 24.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different yesterday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 6 of 14; with him: 29 of 80 (94 games as teammates)
YesterdayOpposing goalie
Michael DiPietro (Confirmed)
Saves: 118 of 127 (.929) over his last 5 games · 3 of BOS's last 10 starts · Jeremy Swayman started 7
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 2 of 10; with him: 2 of 5 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 23 of 64; with him: 8 of 18 (82 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 20; Over 2.5 cleared in 5 of 8 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Evgeni MalkinC
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Shots on Goal: 6 in 24.3 min, Mar 8 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against BOS on record

L20 · Without Rust · Over 2.5

Average: 2; −0.5 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 38%; 3 of 8
Price implies: 45%; at +120
Books’ fair: 40%; margin removed
Time on ice: 23; 8 games · 24 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 40%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−11001 book	—	7/8
−2302 books	+1331 book	5/8
+1202 books	−2002 books	3/8
+2951 book	—	1/8
+7001 book	—	0/8
+16001 book	—	0/8

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet5 hr ago	+140Best	−200
DraftKings5 hr ago	+120	−165Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Erik Karlsson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:10 PM ET.