Erik Karlsson

Pittsburgh Penguins · D · #65

VGK @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1807 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 8 of 13; with him: 49 of 80 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Evgeni Malkin: Out (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 16 of 25; with him: 43 of 70 (95 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 9; with him: 2 of 5 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 38 of 63; with him: 14 of 18 (81 games as teammates)

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Rust

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of 7 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 3, cleared, 25.7 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 1, missed, 27.5 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 2, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 1, missed, 26.8 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 2, cleared, 26.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 4, cleared, 36.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-09-30: 3, cleared, 20 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 0, missed, 19.6 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 1, missed, 24 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 4, cleared, 24.7 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 0, missed, 24.8 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 2, cleared, 27.2 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 20.4 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 2, cleared, 21 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 21.9 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 27.7 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 24.2 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 26.2 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 21.5 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 23.6 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Evgeni MalkinCOut
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Shots on Goal: 1 in 21.9 min, Oct 17 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Rust · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Time on ice: 22.7; 7 games · 24 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 59%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9003 books	—	6/7
−1807 books	+1285 books	4/7
+1803 books	−1901 book	3/7
+4503 books	—	1/7
+8001 book	—	0/7
+19001 book	—	0/7

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada1 min ago	−165Best	+125
FanDuel2 min ago	−165Best	+126
Pinnacle2 min ago	−175	+130Best
Bally Bet1 min ago	−180	+128
betPARX2 min ago	−180	+128
BetRivers1 min ago	−180	—
DraftKings10 min ago	−205	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:53 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

2.5 → 1.5 since first seen

Erik Karlsson's full game log and splits