Emmitt Finnie

Detroit Red Wings · C · #58

VGK @ DET · Live

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1603 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Larkin

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of 7 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-09: 0, missed, 15 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-04-11: 3, cleared, 16.8 min (not counted)
at TB, 2026-04-13: 1, missed, 16.9 min (not counted)
at FLA, 2026-04-15: 0, missed, 15.8 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 1, missed, 14.4 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 16.9 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 2, cleared, 18.3 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 2, cleared, 15.6 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 2, cleared, 17.4 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 4, cleared, 18.3 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 16.3 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 6, cleared, 18.8 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 23.3 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 15 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 18.4 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 20.6 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 18 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 21.2 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 18.7 min
at TB, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 19.6 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different yesterday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Over 1.5 without him: 6 of 14; with him: 37 of 84 (98 games as teammates)
YesterdayOpposing goalie
Carter Hart (Confirmed)
Saves: 221 of 247 (.895) over his last 10 games · 4 of VGK's last 10 starts · Adin Hill started 6
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Over 1.5 without him: 15 of 26; with him: 28 of 72 (98 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 40 of 93 (98 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against VGK in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against VGK on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Alex DeBrincatRW
Lucas RaymondLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Shots on Goal: 3 in 13.4 min, Mar 4 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 62%; at −160
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−7001 book	—	5/7
−1603 books	+1153 books	4/7
+1801 book	—	2/7
+4251 book	—	2/7
+11001 book	—	1/7

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle20 hr ago	−145Best	+110
DraftKings20 hr ago	−160	+115
Bally Bet20 hr ago	−175	+120Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −165 → −160 since first seen

Emmitt Finnie's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:10 PM ET.