Emmitt Finnie
VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM
Game log against Over 1.5
57%4 of 7L20 · Without Larkin
Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of 7 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.
What's different today
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Over 1.5 without him: 6 of 14; with him: 37 of 84 (98 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Carter Hart (Expected)
Saves: 221 of 247 (.895) over his last 10 games · 4 of VGK's last 10 starts · Adin Hill started 6
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Over 1.5 without him: 15 of 26; with him: 28 of 72 (98 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 40 of 93 (98 games as teammates)
Splits
Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against VGK in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against VGK on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 1.5 · L20Alex DeBrincatRW
Lucas RaymondLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs VGK
Shots on Goal: 3 in 13.4 min, Mar 4 (home)
Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against VGK on record
L20 · Without Larkin · Over 1.5
- Average
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 57%
- 4 of 7
- Price implies
- 63%
- at −170
- Books’ fair
- 57%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −151
Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Larkin| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7503 books | — | 5/7 | |
| −1707 books | +1125 books | 4/7 | |
| +2003 books | — | 2/7 | |
| +4602 books | — | 2/7 | |
| +13001 book | — | 1/7 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings6 min ago | −145Best | +110 |
| Pinnacle6 min ago | −145Best | +110 |
| FanDuel5 min ago | −146 | +112 |
| Bovada10 min ago | −170 | — |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −175 | +123Best |
| betPARX5 min ago | −175 | +123Best |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −175 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 11:31 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over: −165 → −170 since first seen