Eetu Luostarinen

Florida Panthers · C · #27

FLA @ WSH · Today 12:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1653 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at CBJ, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 18.8 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 13.9 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 16.5 min
at OTT, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 17.9 min
at PIT, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 16.7 min
at CHI, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 14.6 min
at WPG, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 16.1 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 16.5 min
vs DET, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 18.8 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 16.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Aleksander Barkov: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 53 of 87; with him: 11 of 19 (106 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Brad Marchand: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 26 of 43; with him: 38 of 63 (106 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Logan Thompson (Expected)
Saves: 236 of 266 (.887) over his last 10 games · 6 of WSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 20.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 11th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 20.4, 16th most

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Matthew TkachukLW
Seth JonesD
Brady TkachukLW
Aleksander BarkovCInjured Reserve
Brad MarchandLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Panthers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Shots on Goal: 2 in 18.7 min, Jan 17 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1; −0.5 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −164

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −164, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1163 books	−1652 books	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	+116Best	−165Best
betPARX1 min ago	+116Best	−165Best
BetRivers1 min ago	+116Best	—

Prices as of 9:08 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −155 → −165 since first seen

Eetu Luostarinen's full game log and splits