Easton Cowan

Toronto Maple Leafs · RW · #53

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1263 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different yesterday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

2 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with John Tavares playing; Tavares is out yesterday. Without him: Over 1.5 in 6 of 9.

YesterdayTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 33 of 73 (82 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 10 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 1.5 without him: 12 of 18; with him: 27 of 64 (82 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Karel Vejmelka started UTAH's last game
Saves: 209 of 242 (.864) over his last 10 games · 8 of UTAH's last 10 starts · no probable starter posted yet

67%6 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at NYI, 2026-04-09: 1, missed, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-04-11: 1, missed, 17 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-04-13: 1, missed, 20.2 min (not counted)
at OTT, 2026-04-15: 2, cleared, 20.3 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 1, missed, 16 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 3, cleared, 13.4 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 0, missed, 12.1 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 3, cleared, 16 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 4, cleared, 14 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 2, cleared, 16.1 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 16.9 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 16.7 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 14.7 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 2, cleared, 15.3 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 13.6 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 4, cleared, 16.8 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 15.3 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 15.5 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 19.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 13 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 2 in 16.9 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 6 of 9
Price implies: 56%; at −126
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5001 book	—	9/9
−1263 books	−1053 books	6/9
+2501 book	—	2/9
+6501 book	—	1/9
+17001 book	—	0/9

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings7 hr ago	−115Best	−120
Pinnacle7 hr ago	−126	−105
Bally Bet7 hr ago	−137	+100Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −168 → −126 since first seen

Easton Cowan's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.