Dylan Guenther

Utah Mammoth · RW · #11

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1676 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 55 of 92 (100 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Maveric Lamoureux: Injured Reserve (shoulder)
Under 3.5 without him: 40 of 68; with him: 4 of 5 (73 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)
Saves: 255 of 288 (.885) over his last 10 games · 6 of TOR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 20.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 16th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 18.9, 22nd most

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 5, missed, 17.3 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 15.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 2, hit, 15 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 2, hit, 16.9 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 2, hit, 15.8 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 20.2 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 3, hit, 19.3 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 20.8 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 16 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 19.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
John MarinoDInjured Reserve
Maveric LamoureuxDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Shots on Goal: 2 in 15.9 min, Oct 13 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 2.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 2; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −167
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −176

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −176, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−35001 book	—	1/10
−6102 books	—	1/10
−2002 books	—	6/10
+1186 books	−1675 books	7/10
+2582 books	—	9/10
+5462 books	—	10/10
+10001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings14 min ago	+110	−150Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+118	−167
betPARX4 min ago	+118	−167
FanDuel5 min ago	+132	−174
Pinnacle5 min ago	+136Best	−183
BetRivers5 min ago	+118	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under −148 → −167 since first seen

Dylan Guenther's full game log and splits