Darren Raddysh

Toronto Maple Leafs · D · #43

UTAH @ TOR · Tue, Nov 3 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

33%3 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 3 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at MTL, 2026-04-26: 3, cleared, 25.3 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-29: 6, cleared, 25.4 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-05-01: 6, cleared, 28.2 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-05-03: 2, missed, 26.1 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 3, cleared, 23.8 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 4, cleared, 20.6 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 22.8 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 2, missed, 25.9 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 1, missed, 24.8 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 21.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 24.7 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 27.2 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 3, cleared, 24.4 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 5, cleared, 26.7 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 20.5 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 24.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 21.7 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 23.8 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 24.8 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 21.8 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different on Tuesday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TueTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 3 of 9; with him: 4 of 7 (16 games as teammates)
TueDefense vs defensemen
UTAH allow 6.1 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 31st most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.7, 25th most
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 0 of 2; with him: 7 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 2.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: no games (16 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Tuesday. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 3 in 24.7 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 33%; 3 of 9
Price implies: 47%; at +115
Books’ fair: 43%; margin removed
Time on ice: 23.2; 9 games · 23 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 43%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−12001 book	—	7/9
−2501 book	—	5/9
+1153 books	−1553 books	3/9
+2651 book	—	1/9
+6001 book	—	1/9
+12001 book	—	0/9

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle3 days ago	+124Best	−165
DraftKings3 days ago	+115	−155
Bally Bet3 days ago	+108	−150Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −106 → +115 since first seen

Darren Raddysh's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.