Cutter Gauthier

Anaheim Ducks · LW · #61

ANA @ VAN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1557 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Kevin Lankinen (Confirmed)
Saves: 220 of 266 (.827) over his last 10 games · 3 of VAN's last 10 starts · Leevi Merilainen started 7
TonightDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 24.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: the most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 24.7, the most
Teammate out
Troy Terry: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 4.5 without him: 21 of 33; with him: 48 of 68 (101 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Poehling: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 4.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: 58 of 85 (101 games as teammates)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at WPG, 2026-10-09: 1, hit, 18.3 min
at CGY, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 2.3 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-16: 4, hit, 21.3 min
at NYR, 2026-10-19: 5, missed, 16.2 min
at NYI, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 17.5 min
at NJ, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 19 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 4, hit, 18.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-27: 4, hit, 16.5 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-29: 10, missed, 22.3 min
vs OTT, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 19 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L10

Leo CarlssonC
Beckett SenneckeRW
Jackson LaCombeD
Troy TerryRWInjured Reserve
Ryan PoehlingCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Ducks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Shots on Goal: 4 in 16.5 min, Oct 27 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 9 of 9 games against VAN on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 3.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −166, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3703 books	—	4/10
−1453 books	+1103 books	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1407 books	−1553 books	7/10
+2903 books	—	9/10
+6003 books	—	9/10
+10001 book	—	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	+110	−155Best
betPARX4 min ago	+110	−155Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	+157	−214
BetRivers3 min ago	+110	—
Bovada5 min ago	+150	—
DraftKings7 min ago	+140	—
FanDuel8 min ago	+158Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

3.5 → 4.5 since first seen

Cutter Gauthier's full game log and splits