Connor McMichael

St. Louis Blues · LW · #77

STL @ NJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1657 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

at OTT, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 14.4 min
at MIN, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 17.4 min
at NSH, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 18.5 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 14.6 min
vs VGK, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 13.2 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 15.4 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-27: 5, missed, 17 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 15.3 min
at DET, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 17.1 min
at NYR, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 14.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (Confirmed)
Saves: 195 of 223 (.874) over his last 10 games · 3 of NJ's last 10 starts · Jake Allen started 5
Teammate out
Logan Mailloux: Injured Reserve (hand)
Under 1.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: no games (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Tyler Tucker: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: no games (15 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NJ allow 16.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 29th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 15.8, the fewest

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NJ in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 8 against NJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Dylan HollowayLW
Jimmy SnuggerudRW
Robert ThomasC
Logan MaillouxDInjured Reserve
Tyler TuckerDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Blues count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

McMichael didn't play the Feb 28 meeting; shots on goal the last time McMichael faced them: 1 (Apr 2)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against NJ on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 0.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −137 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5003 books	—	5/10
+1007 books	−1655 books	8/10
+3253 books	—	8/10
+11001 book	—	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−103	−137Best
betPARX1 min ago	−103	−137Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	+124	−165
Bovada10 min ago	+130Best	−170
DraftKings6 min ago	+125	−170
BetRivers1 min ago	−103	—
FanDuel2 min ago	+100	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Connor McMichael's full game log and splits