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Brock Nelson

Colorado Avalanche · C · #11

NSH @ COL · Today 9:30 PM
OverUnder0.5
Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1455 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 0.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 1, missed, 23 min
  2. vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 1, missed, 20.5 min
  3. at PHI, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 18.8 min
  4. at NJ, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.5 min
  5. vs TB, 2026-10-23: 0, hit, 18.4 min
  6. at NSH, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 16.5 min
  7. vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 16.6 min
  8. vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 13.6 min
  9. at CHI, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 17 min
  10. at CBJ, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 15.9 min
Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Josh Manson: Out (ankle)

    Under 0.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: 45 of 101 (110 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    Juuse Saros (Expected)

    Saves: 280 of 308 (.909) over his last 10 games · 7 of NSH's last 10 starts

  • Defense vs forwards

    NSH allow 6.00 points a game to forwards: 21st most of 32

    15 games · last 10 games: 6.10, 19th most

  • Time on ice

    Last 5: 15.9 min · 2026–27: 17.7 (16 games)

    Power play: 1.9 min last 5 · 1.5 2026–27

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

  • Nathan MacKinnonC

  • Martin NecasC

  • Cale MakarD

  • Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NSH

Points: 0 in 16.5 min, Oct 25 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against NSH on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average
0.4
−0.1 vs line
Median
0
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
59%
at −145
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
+1045 books−1452 books6/10
+5004 books—10/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 0.5Under 0.5
Pinnacle4 min ago−102−130Best
DraftKings4 min ago+110Best−145
Bally Bet4 min ago+104—
betPARX3 min ago+104—
BetRivers5 min ago+104—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 1:20 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: −150 → −145 since first seen

Brock Nelson's full game log and splits