Bo Horvat

New York Islanders · C · #14

NJ @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1656 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

73%11 of 15L20 · Without Barzal

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 11 of 15 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

at CAR, 2026-04-04: 1, missed, 20.7 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 2, missed, 19.8 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 2, missed, 22.9 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 3, cleared, 20.7 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 2, missed, 20.3 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 4, cleared, 22.5 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 4, cleared, 18.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 2, missed, 17.8 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 4, cleared, 17.9 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 3, cleared, 20.2 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 19.8 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 4, cleared, 23.4 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 24.4 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 21.6 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 5, cleared, 21.6 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 19.3 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 2, missed, 26.1 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 21 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 20.5 min
vs CAR, 2026-11-05: 3, cleared, 20.9 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: 41 of 67 (83 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 5 of 7; with him: 6 of 8 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 7 of 14; with him: 40 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alexander Romanov: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 41 of 65; with him: 11 of 18 (83 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Matthew SchaeferD
Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve
Alexander RomanovDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

Shots on Goal: 4 in 18.5 min, Oct 3 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against NJ on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Over 2.5

Average: 3.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 73%; 11 of 15
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −159 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −154, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5602 books	—	15/15
−1656 books	+1255 books	11/15
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/15
+1422 books	pick'em only	5/15
+3102 books	—	1/15
+6502 books	—	0/15

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−159Best	+112
betPARX2 min ago	−159Best	+112
BetRivers1 min ago	−159Best	—
Bovada4 min ago	−165	+125
FanDuel2 min ago	−170	+130Best
Pinnacle4 min ago	−170	+125
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:06 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Bo Horvat's full game log and splits