Bo Horvat

New York Islanders · C · #14

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1246 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

71%10 of 14L20 · Without Barzal

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 10 of 14 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-03: 4, cleared, 22.2 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-04-04: 1, missed, 20.7 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 2, missed, 19.8 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 2, missed, 22.9 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 3, cleared, 20.7 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 2, missed, 20.3 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 4, cleared, 22.5 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 4, cleared, 18.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 2, missed, 17.8 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 4, cleared, 17.9 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 3, cleared, 20.2 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 19.8 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 4, cleared, 23.4 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 24.4 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 21.6 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 5, cleared, 21.6 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 19.3 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 2, missed, 26.1 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 21 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 20.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: 41 of 67 (82 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 6 of 8 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 6 of 13; with him: 40 of 59 (72 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alexander Romanov: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 40 of 64; with him: 11 of 18 (82 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Matthew SchaeferD
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve
Alexander RomanovDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.3 min, Apr 14 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 6 of 13 games against CAR on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Over 2.5

Average: 3.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 71%; 10 of 14
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−16001 book	—	14/14
−3802 books	—	14/14
−1246 books	−1145 books	10/14
+2052 books	—	5/14
+4502 books	—	1/14
+10001 book	—	0/14

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings1 min ago	−115Best	−120
FanDuel1 min ago	−122	−106
Bally Bet1 min ago	−124	−114
betPARXjust now	−124	−114
BetRivers1 min ago	−124	—
Pinnacle1 min ago	−134	+101Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −118 → −124 since first seen

Bo Horvat's full game log and splits