Bo Horvat

New York Islanders · C · #14

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1622 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

79%11 of 14L20 · Without Barzal

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 11 of 14 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-03: 0, missed, 22.2 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-04-04: 0, missed, 20.7 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 1, cleared, 19.8 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 0, missed, 22.9 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 0, missed, 20.7 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 1, cleared, 20.3 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 1, cleared, 22.5 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 1, cleared, 18.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 1, cleared, 17.8 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 2, cleared, 17.9 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 19.8 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 23.4 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 24.4 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 21.6 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 21.6 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 19.3 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 26.1 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 21 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 20.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 11 of 15; with him: 40 of 67 (82 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 7 of 8 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 8 of 13; with him: 37 of 59 (72 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alexander Romanov: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 37 of 64; with him: 14 of 18 (82 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Matthew SchaeferD
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve
Alexander RomanovDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Points: 1 in 20.3 min, Apr 14 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 7 of 13 games against CAR on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 79%; 11 of 14
Price implies: 62%; at −162
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −140 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −149, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1622 books	+1051 book	11/14
+3202 books	—	3/14
+10602 books	—	0/14

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings11 min ago	−140Best	+105Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−162	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:51 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−148 → −162 since first seen

Bo Horvat's full game log and splits