Ben Kindel

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #81

PIT @ LA · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1866 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Rust

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of 7 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

at STL, 2026-04-14: 1, missed, 18.1 min
vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 0, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 3, cleared, 11 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 1, missed, 13.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 1, missed, 10.3 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 2, cleared, 11.8 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 2, cleared, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 5, cleared, 14.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 2, cleared, 18.6 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 2, cleared, 19.6 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 3, cleared, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 2, cleared, 19.5 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 17.1 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 1, missed, 15 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 4, cleared, 15.6 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 16.5 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 16.8 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 14.5 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-05: 0, missed, 18.1 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 8 of 13; with him: 45 of 81 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 9; with him: 4 of 4 (13 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 35 of 64; with him: 12 of 20 (84 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Anton Forsberg (Expected)
Saves: 239 of 264 (.905) over his last 10 games · 5 of LA's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against LA in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against LA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LA

Shots on Goal: 2 in 17.8 min, Nov 9, 2025 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against LA on record

L20 · Without Rust · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 65%; at −186
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −156 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −155, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−8002 books	—	5/7
−1865 books	+1305 books	4/7
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/7
+1702 books	—	3/7
+4002 books	—	1/7
+10001 book	—	1/7

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−156Best	+120
DraftKings4 min ago	−165	+120
Bally Bet4 min ago	−186	+130Best
betPARX5 min ago	−186	+130Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−186	—
Pinnacle4 min ago	—	+130Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −170 → −186 since first seen

Ben Kindel's full game log and splits