Ben Kindel

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #81

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1607 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

6 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Bryan Rust playing; Rust is out tonight. Without him: Under 0.5 in 4 of 11.

TonightTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 11; with him: 58 of 81 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Evgeni Malkin: Out (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 16 of 25; with him: 48 of 69 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 7; with him: 1 of 4 (11 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Adin Hill (Expected)
Saves: 233 of 262 (.889) over his last 10 games · 5 of VGK's last 10 starts

20%1 of 5L20 · Without Rust

Under 0.5 Points hit in 1 of 5 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs FLA, 2026-04-05: 0, hit, 11.6 min (not counted)
at NJ, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 14.8 min (not counted)
at STL, 2026-04-14: 1, missed, 18.1 min
vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 0, hit, 11 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 0, hit, 13.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 10.3 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 11.8 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 0, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 14.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 2, missed, 18.6 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 1, missed, 19.6 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 17.1 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 0, hit, 15 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 15.6 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 16.5 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 16.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Evgeni MalkinCOut
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Points: 0 in 15.6 min, Oct 17 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Rust · Under 0.5

Average: 1.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 1 of 5
Price implies: 62%; at −160
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −145, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
+1087 books	−1602 books	1/5
+5256 books	—	3/5
+18001 book	—	5/5

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle2 min ago	+115	−155Best
DraftKings6 min ago	+120Best	−165
Bally Bet2 min ago	+108	—
betPARX1 min ago	+108	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+108	—
Bovada1 min ago	+110	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+108	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:13 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Ben Kindel's full game log and splits