Barrett Hayton

Utah Mammoth · C · #27

UTAH @ TOR · Tue, Nov 3 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1402 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different yesterday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Kailer Yamamoto: Out (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 11 of 28; with him: 35 of 55 (83 games as teammates)
Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 41 of 77 (83 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Anthony Stolarz started TOR's last game
Saves: 230 of 255 (.902) over his last 10 games · 4 of TOR's last 10 starts · Sergei Bobrovsky started 6 · no probable starter posted yet
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 20.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 16th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 18.9, 22nd most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 12.5 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 14 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 15 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 15.2 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 2, cleared, 14.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 14.5 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 15.9 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 13.2 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 16.3 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 13.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
Kailer YamamotoRWOut
John MarinoDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Shots on Goal: 2 in 14 min, Oct 13 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6501 book	—	10/10
−1402 books	+1032 books	6/10
+1901 book	—	4/10
+4751 book	—	0/10
+12001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet6 hr ago	−136Best	−103
DraftKings6 hr ago	−145	+110Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −148 → −140 since first seen

Barrett Hayton's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.