Andrew Copp

Detroit Red Wings · C · #18

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −2105 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Larkin

Under 0.5 Points hit in 4 of 7 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 18.1 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 17.7 min (not counted)
at TB, 2026-04-13: 0, hit, 16.7 min (not counted)
at FLA, 2026-04-15: 0, hit, 15.2 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 22.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 23.7 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 18.4 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 15.4 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.3 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 18.3 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 17.8 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 20.9 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 15.5 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 15.5 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 14.6 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 17.8 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 18.1 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 20.6 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 16.8 min
at TB, 2026-11-03: 1, missed, 19.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 11; with him: 53 of 84 (95 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Carter Hart (Expected)
Saves: 221 of 247 (.895) over his last 10 games · 4 of VGK's last 10 starts · Adin Hill started 6
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Under 0.5 without him: 18 of 26; with him: 39 of 69 (95 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 54 of 90 (95 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against VGK in his last 20; Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 against VGK on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Alex DeBrincatRW
Lucas RaymondLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Points: 1 in 18.9 min, Mar 4 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Under 0.5

Average: 0.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 68%; at −210
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −168

Research, not a pick. At −210 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −168, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1305 books	−2102 books	4/7
	+6004 books	—	6/7

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+155Best	−210Best
Pinnacle5 min ago	+155Best	−210Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+130	—
betPARX4 min ago	+130	—
BetRivers5 min ago	+130	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:31 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: No move since first seen

Andrew Copp's full game log and splits