Alex Iafallo

Winnipeg Jets · LW · #9

WPG @ MTL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1673 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Josh Morrissey: Injured Reserve (wrist)
Under 1.5 without him: 9 of 17; with him: 47 of 84 (101 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 1.5 without him: 13 of 28; with him: 43 of 73 (101 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jacob Fowler (Confirmed)
Saves: 239 of 256 (.934) over his last 10 games · 7 of MTL's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
MTL allow 19.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 18th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 19.8, 16th most

55%6 of 11L20 · Without Morrissey

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of 11 games without Josh Morrissey (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-02: 1, hit, 16 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-04-04: 3, missed, 19.8 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-04-06: 4, missed, 20.8 min (not counted)
at STL, 2026-04-09: 3, missed, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-11: 3, missed, 15.1 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 14.6 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-04: 1, hit, 11.7 min (not counted)
at PIT, 2026-10-05: 2, missed, 10.4 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-10-07: 2, missed, 15.2 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 14.7 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 15.2 min
at CHI, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 15.1 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 16.4 min
at STL, 2026-10-20: 5, missed, 13.1 min
at DAL, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 12.7 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 12.1 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 11 min
at TB, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 15.7 min
at FLA, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 14.1 min
at CAR, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 14 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Kyle ConnorLW
Mark ScheifeleC
Josh MorrisseyDInjured Reserve
Vladislav NamestnikovCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Jets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Shots on Goal: 2 in 12.1 min, Oct 25 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against MTL on record

L20 · Without Morrissey · Under 1.5

Average: 1.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 55%; 6 of 11
Price implies: 63%; at −167
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −167 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Morrissey

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1203 books	−1672 books	6/11

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	+120Best	−167Best
betPARX4 min ago	+120Best	−167Best
BetRivers4 min ago	+120Best	—

Prices as of 3:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Alex Iafallo's full game log and splits