Alex DeBrincat

Detroit Red Wings · RW · #93

DET @ COL · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1946 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L20 · Without Larkin

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 5 of 8 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs NJ, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 21.2 min (not counted)
at TB, 2026-04-13: 0, hit, 17.9 min (not counted)
at FLA, 2026-04-15: 1, missed, 18.6 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 19.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 23.3 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 1, missed, 18.8 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 1, missed, 16 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 21.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 20.9 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 19.3 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 23.8 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 21.9 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 18 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 18.8 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 18.7 min
at TB, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 22.9 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-05: 0, hit, 19.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Under 0.5 without him: 7 of 15; with him: 50 of 84 (99 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Under 0.5 without him: 18 of 27; with him: 39 of 72 (99 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 53 of 93 (99 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Mackenzie Blackwood (Expected)
Saves: 222 of 249 (.892) over his last 10 games · 8 of COL's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against COL in his last 20; Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 4 against COL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Lucas RaymondLW
Viktor ArvidssonLW
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs COL

Assists: 0 in 16.7 min, Feb 2 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against COL on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 66%; at −194
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −152, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1286 books	−1942 books	5/8
	+7002 books	—	7/8

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings9 min ago	+120	−165Best
Pinnacle9 min ago	+144Best	−194
Bally Bet8 min ago	+128	—
betPARX5 min ago	+128	—
BetRivers6 min ago	+128	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+144Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Alex DeBrincat's full game log and splits