Alex DeBrincat

Detroit Red Wings · RW · #93

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1706 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Larkin

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 4 of 7 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 16.1 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 21.2 min (not counted)
at TB, 2026-04-13: 0, hit, 17.9 min (not counted)
at FLA, 2026-04-15: 1, missed, 18.6 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 19.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 23.3 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 1, missed, 18.8 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 1, missed, 16 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 21.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 20.9 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 19.3 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 23.8 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 21.9 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 18 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 18.8 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 18.7 min
at TB, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 22.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 14; with him: 50 of 84 (98 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Carter Hart (Expected)
Saves: 221 of 247 (.895) over his last 10 games · 4 of VGK's last 10 starts · Adin Hill started 6
TodayDefense vs forwards
VGK allow 2.82 assists a game to forwards: 30th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 3.00, 27th most
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Under 0.5 without him: 17 of 26; with him: 39 of 72 (98 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against VGK in his last 20; Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 against VGK on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Lucas RaymondLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Viktor ArvidssonLW
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Assists: 1 in 20.7 min, Mar 4 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Under 0.5

Average: 0.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 63%; at −170
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −170 the price is worse than our fair −138, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
+1206 books	−1701 book	4/7
+6003 books	—	6/7
+18002 books	—	7/7

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+125Best	−170Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	+120	—
betPARX4 min ago	+120	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+120	—
Bovada2 min ago	+110	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+108	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:30 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Alex DeBrincat's full game log and splits