Zach Charbonnet

Seattle Seahawks · RB · #26

ARI @ SEA · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under43.5

Over 43.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1133 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 43.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at LAR, 2025-11-16: 47, cleared, 13 carries + targets
at TEN, 2025-11-23: 35, missed, 6 carries + targets
vs MIN, 2025-11-30: 52, cleared, 14 carries + targets
at ATL, 2025-12-07: 66, cleared, 10 carries + targets
vs IND, 2025-12-14: 31, missed, 9 carries + targets
vs LAR, 2025-12-18: 54, cleared, 13 carries + targets
at CAR, 2025-12-28: 122, cleared, 20 carries + targets
at SF, 2026-01-03: 97, cleared, 21 carries + targets
vs SF, 2026-01-17: 20, missed, 5 carries + targets
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 29, missed, 10 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 43.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 18.5–88.1 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 43.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunQuarterback
Sam Darnold: Out (quadriceps). He led SEA in passing in 6 of 8 games this season
Also led: Drew Lock 2 (Questionable, elbow). Over 43.5 with Darnold at quarterback: 12 of 18; with another SEA quarterback: 13 of 26
Defense vs running backs
ARI allow 129.4 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 14th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 12 carries + targets · 2025: 12.5 (17 games)
Target share: 13% last 2 games · 7% over 11 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 vs CHI

Splits

Over 43.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ARI in his last 10; Over 43.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against ARI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ARI

Charbonnet didn't play the Sep 20 meeting; rush+rec yards the last time Charbonnet faced them: 83 (Nov 9, 2025)

Over 43.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against ARI on record

L10 · Over 43.5

Average: 55.3; +11.8 vs line
Median: 49.5; +6 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	9/10
−1133 books	−1172 books	6/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10
+1353 books	—	5/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 43.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 43.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 43.5	Under 43.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−113Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−114	−117

Prices as of 2:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

43.5

57.5 → 43.5 since first seen