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Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs · WR · #1

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1554 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 3.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

  1. vs LAC, 2025-12-14: 2, hit, 4 targets
  2. at TEN, 2025-12-21: 2, hit, 3 targets
  3. vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 0, hit, 3 targets
  4. vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 3, hit, 6 targets
  5. vs IND, 2026-09-20: 5, missed, 7 targets
  6. at MIA, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 2 targets
  7. at LV, 2026-10-04: 4, missed, 7 targets
  8. vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 7, missed, 7 targets
  9. at SEA, 2026-10-25: 3, hit, 6 targets
  10. at DEN, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 6 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Patrick Mahomes led KC in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 19 of 38; with another KC quarterback: 2 of 2

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NYJ allow 10.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 25th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6.3 targets · 2026: 5.9 (7 games)

    Target share: 18% last 3 games · 18% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3.1
−0.4 vs line
Median
3
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
61%
at −155
Books’ fair
56%
margin removed
Our chance
54%
estimate · fair −118

Research, not a pick. At −144 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −118, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−8354 books—1/10
−2254 books—4/10
+1184 books−1552 books7/10
+2654 books—8/10
+5754 books—9/10
+8801 book—9/10
+14001 book—10/10
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel6 min ago+108−144Best
betPARX7 min ago+118Best−155
Bally Bet7 min ago+118Best—
BetRivers7 min ago+118Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−144 → −155 since first seen

Xavier Worthy's full game log and splits