Xavier Hutchinson

Houston Texans · WR · #19

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1346 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at PIT, 2026-01-12: 2, missed, 4 targets
at NE, 2026-01-18: 4, cleared, 13 targets
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 3, cleared, 6 targets
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 9 targets
at IND, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 6 targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 3, cleared, 5 targets
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 5 targets
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 3 targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 6 targets
at LAC, 2026-11-08: 3, cleared, 5 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
C.J. Stroud led HOU in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Stroud at quarterback: 13 of 45; with another HOU quarterback: 2 of 5
Defense vs wide receivers
CLE allow 10.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 17th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 5.6 (8 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at LAC

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Receptions: 2 in 2 targets, Jan 13, 2024 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against CLE on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3; +0.5 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −132 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −163, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	10/10
−4354 books	—	10/10
−1346 books	+1004 books	8/10
+1854 books	—	2/10
+4204 books	—	0/10
+9504 books	—	0/10
+14001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−132Best	+100
Pinnacle1 min ago	−132Best	+100
Bally Bet1 min ago	−134	—
betPARX1 min ago	−134	+104
BetRivers1 min ago	−134	—
Bovada1 min ago	−135	+105Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −125 → −134 since first seen